World Potato Markets - Nov 2024 summary

Summary of World Potato Markets (UK and Netherlands)

Netherlands Summary

• Potato Days: Annual event highlighted seed breeders' strategies for resilience amid climate challenges.
• Yield Trends: Global potato yields have declined since peaking at 22.3 tonnes/hectare in 2019.
• European Yields: Increased by 49% since 2000 but have plateaued at ~36t/ha over the last five years. Core producers (Germany, France, Netherlands, Belgium) average ~40t/ha.
• Harvest Completion: Nearly finished, with only small areas of heavy soil in the south remaining.
• Market Prices: Field stocks priced at €200/tonne; fresh fries, peeling, and export potatoes range from €240 to €300/tonne.

UK Summary

• Harvest Completion: Potato harvesting is nearly complete, with only heavy soils left to clear.
• Weather Conditions: Recent dull weather slowed soil drying, but minimal rain over two weeks enabled harvest completion and winter crop planting.
• Winter Crops: Wheat planting has resumed after last year’s wet autumn caused a historically low British wheat crop.
• Forecast: Sunnier but colder weather expected to help lift remaining crops, improving conditions compared to last year’s wet November.
• Storage Focus: Ensuring proper potato storage is key; vulnerable crops already sold at reduced prices.
• Crop Size: UK’s 2024 potato crop could be the smallest ever, estimated at 4.3–4.5 million tonnes, with tight European supply adding pressure.
• Market Prices: Packing potato prices range from £300 to £450/tonne; processors pay £200/tonne for free-buy supplies, with rising bagged processing values.

Netherlands: Harvest Progress and Market Trends

Potato harvesting in the Netherlands is nearly complete, with only small areas in the heavier soils of the south remaining. Favourable dry conditions are expected to clear these fields within days. The end of harvesting has supported price increases, with field stocks quoted at €200/tonne. Potatoes destined for fresh fries, peeling, and export are priced higher, ranging between €240 and €300/tonne. However, the PotatoNL service has yet to release official price quotes, raising concerns about potential delays for the season. The combination of nearly finished harvesting and strong market demand underscores the importance of ongoing innovation and adaptation in the potato sector to sustain profitability and address market challenges.

Resilience and Yield Challenges

The Netherlands recently hosted the annual Potato Days, a platform for seed breeders to present their strategies and innovations amidst a changing climate. A key theme this year was the stalling of global and European potato yields, particularly over the past five years. According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, global yields peaked at 22.3 tonnes/hectare in 2019, but have declined annually since. Despite a 49% increase in European yields since 2000, they have stagnated at around 36 tonnes/hectare over the past five years. In key potato-producing countries—Germany, France, the Netherlands, and Belgium—yields have remained at approximately 40 tonnes/hectare for 24 years. These trends highlight the growing need for resilience and innovation in potato breeding to combat the impacts of climate change and maintain yield improvements.

United Kingdom: A much drier end to this season than last

Harvesting is virtually finished with only a few areas of heavier land still to be cleared. Conditions have been very dull with little sun so soil has not dried out as quickly as growers might have liked, but there has not been much rain for the last two weeks. That has allowed growers to not just finish potato harvesting but to plant winter crops. Including wheat which suffered last year because of the wet autumn resulting one of the smallest British wheat crops ever. 

The forecast is for sunnier but colder conditions which should allow the last crops to be lifted. That is ahead of last year when a very wet November delayed harvesting and increased quality problems. The focus now will be ensuring that potatoes are stored well to last as long into the season as possible. Some vulnerable crops have already been moved, depressing their value. 

A lack of British potatoes – World Potato Markets calculates that the UK crop could be the smallest ever at between 4.3 million and 4.5 million tonnes – and relatively tight European supply, mean that 2024/25 is likely to be another historically high-priced season. 

Newsletter Potato Call quotes maincrop packing prices from £300/tonne, with the most favoured types making up to £450/tonne. Meanwhile, processors are paying £200/tonne for free-buy supplies, with strengthening values for bagged processing types.